{"id":22685,"date":"2026-03-10T10:26:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:26:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/?p=22685"},"modified":"2026-03-10T10:26:25","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T16:26:25","slug":"quien-gana-si-la-reforma-electoral-no-se-aprueba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/quien-gana-si-la-reforma-electoral-no-se-aprueba\/columnas\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00bfQui\u00e9n\u00a0gana\u00a0si\u00a0la\u00a0reforma\u00a0electoral\u00a0no\u00a0se\u00a0aprueba?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Eduardo Ortiz Campa, Director de Pragm\u00e1tika.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

La reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>electoral<\/strong> <\/strong>que<\/strong> <\/strong>present\u00f3<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>Presidenta<\/strong> <\/strong>Claudia<\/strong> <\/strong>Sheinbaum<\/strong> <\/strong>contiene<\/strong> <\/strong>impl\u00edcita<\/strong> <\/strong>una<\/strong> <\/strong>paradoja<\/strong> <\/strong>pol\u00edtica<\/strong> <\/strong>interesante<\/strong>: si la iniciativa no logra aprobarse, este resultado<\/strong> <\/strong>podr\u00eda<\/strong> <\/strong>favorecer<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>posici\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>Presidenta<\/strong> <\/strong>dentro<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>coalici\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>gobernante<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La iniciativa<\/strong> <\/strong>presidencial<\/strong> <\/strong>enfrenta<\/strong> <\/strong>tres<\/strong> <\/strong>escenarios<\/strong> <\/strong>posibles<\/strong>: que sea  bloqueada y no se apruebe,  que se apruebe con modificaciones o que se apruebe sin cambios. \u00bfDe qu\u00e9 trata<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>reforma<\/strong>? \u00bfSe aprobar\u00e1<\/strong> <\/strong>o<\/strong> <\/strong>rechazar\u00e1<\/strong>? y \u00bfqui\u00e9n<\/strong> <\/strong>pierde<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>gana<\/strong> <\/strong>con<\/strong> <\/strong>ello<\/strong>? A continuaci\u00f3n<\/strong>, exponemos<\/strong> <\/strong>algunas<\/strong> <\/strong>hip\u00f3tesis<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En t\u00e9rminos<\/strong> <\/strong>generales<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>se<\/strong> <\/strong>articula<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>tres<\/strong> <\/strong>cambios<\/strong>: el primero, reducir<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>una<\/strong> <\/strong>cuarta<\/strong> <\/strong>parte<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>financiamiento<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>partidos<\/strong> y con ellos quitarles<\/strong> <\/strong>poder<\/strong> <\/strong>econ\u00f3mico<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>operativo<\/strong>. El segundo, cambiar el modo en el que se eligen<\/strong> <\/strong>las<\/strong> <\/strong>diputaciones<\/strong> <\/strong>plurinominales<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>C\u00e1mara<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>Diputados<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>eliminar<\/strong> <\/strong>las<\/strong> <\/strong>senadur\u00edas<\/strong> <\/strong>plurinominales<\/strong>, es decir, quitarles poder pol\u00edtico. Y el tercero, mayor<\/strong> <\/strong>fiscalizaci\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>las<\/strong> <\/strong>operaciones<\/strong> <\/strong>financieras<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>las<\/strong> <\/strong>personas<\/strong> <\/strong>candidatas<\/strong> y de los partidos, es decir, mayor<\/strong> <\/strong>supervisi\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>sobre<\/strong> <\/strong>origen<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>destino<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>recursos<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En la pr\u00e1ctica, la reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>tendr\u00eda<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>impacto<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>quitarles<\/strong> <\/strong>poder<\/strong> <\/strong>a<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>partidos<\/strong> <\/strong>aliados<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>debilitarlos<\/strong>. En t\u00e9rminos<\/strong> <\/strong>pol\u00edticos<\/strong> <\/strong>eso<\/strong> <\/strong>implica<\/strong> <\/strong>disminuir<\/strong> <\/strong>su<\/strong> <\/strong>poder<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>negociaci\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>dentro<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>coalici\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>gobernante<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>cara<\/strong> a lo que resta del sexenio, particularmente de los procesos electorales de 2027. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

La iniciativa<\/strong> <\/strong>tambi\u00e9n<\/strong> <\/strong>propone<\/strong> <\/strong>ampliar<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>mecanismos<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>participaci\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>ciudadana<\/strong>, permitir<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>voto<\/strong> <\/strong>electr\u00f3nico<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>las<\/strong> <\/strong>consultas<\/strong> <\/strong>populares<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>establecer<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>votaci\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>directa<\/strong> <\/strong>para<\/strong> <\/strong>las<\/strong> <\/strong>diputaciones<\/strong> <\/strong>plurinominales<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Y entonces<\/strong> \u00bf<\/strong>Se<\/strong> <\/strong>va<\/strong> <\/strong>a<\/strong> <\/strong>aprobar<\/strong> <\/strong>o<\/strong> <\/strong>rechazar<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>reforma<\/strong>? Para responder, hay que tener<\/strong> <\/strong>presente<\/strong> <\/strong>lo<\/strong> <\/strong>siguiente<\/strong>. Actualmente<\/strong> <\/strong>Morena<\/strong> <\/strong>cuenta<\/strong> <\/strong>con<\/strong> 253 <\/strong>votos<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>C\u00e1mara<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>Diputados<\/strong>, sin embargo, aprobar<\/strong> <\/strong>una<\/strong> <\/strong>reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>constitucional<\/strong> <\/strong>requiere<\/strong> <\/strong>una<\/strong> <\/strong>mayor\u00eda<\/strong> <\/strong>calificada<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> 334 <\/strong>votos<\/strong>. Uno de sus aliados el PT  (49 votos) se ha opuesto<\/strong> <\/strong>p\u00fablicamente<\/strong> <\/strong>a<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>PVEM<\/strong> (62 votos) ha dejado<\/strong> <\/strong>abierta<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>posibilidad<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>apoyar<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>propuesta<\/strong> y se ha distanciado<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>las<\/strong> <\/strong>opiniones<\/strong> <\/strong>individuales<\/strong> de algunos de sus correligionarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incluso<\/strong> <\/strong>con<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>apoyo<\/strong> <\/strong>del<\/strong> <\/strong>PVEM<\/strong> pero sin los votos del PT o de otras fuerzas<\/strong> <\/strong>pol\u00edticas<\/strong>, la reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>no<\/strong> <\/strong>pasar\u00eda<\/strong>. El escenario<\/strong> <\/strong>m\u00e1s<\/strong> <\/strong>probable<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>electoral<\/strong> es que no sea aprobada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00bfQui\u00e9n<\/strong> <\/strong>gana<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>qui\u00e9n<\/strong> <\/strong>pierde<\/strong> <\/strong>si<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>es<\/strong> <\/strong>bloqueada<\/strong>? Una lectura lineal, propondr\u00eda<\/strong> <\/strong>como<\/strong> <\/strong>ganadores<\/strong> <\/strong>a<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>partidos<\/strong> <\/strong>que<\/strong> <\/strong>se<\/strong> <\/strong>oponen<\/strong> <\/strong>a<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>reforma<\/strong>, no obstante, creemos<\/strong> <\/strong>que<\/strong> <\/strong>mantener<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>Constituci\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>sin<\/strong> <\/strong>cambios<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>materia<\/strong> <\/strong>electoral<\/strong> <\/strong>beneficia<\/strong> m\u00e1s a la Presidenta que a sus aliados, a continuaci\u00f3n las razones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Para el PVEM y el PT votar en contra de la reforma<\/strong> <\/strong>implica<\/strong> <\/strong>dos<\/strong> <\/strong>cosas<\/strong>: 1) mantener el statu quo y 2) auto<\/strong> <\/strong>desvincularse<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>una<\/strong> <\/strong>parte<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>agenda<\/strong> <\/strong>presidencial<\/strong>, una especie<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>autoexilio<\/strong> <\/strong>que<\/strong> <\/strong>podr\u00eda<\/strong> <\/strong>durar<\/strong> <\/strong>al<\/strong> <\/strong>menos<\/strong> <\/strong>hasta<\/strong> 2027 <\/strong>o<\/strong> <\/strong>incluso<\/strong> hasta 2030.  Al alejarse<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>agenda<\/strong> <\/strong>presidencial<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>aliados<\/strong> <\/strong>insistir\u00e1n<\/strong> en que no rompen con la Presidenta, sin embargo, se autoetiquetan<\/strong> <\/strong>como<\/strong> <\/strong>opositores<\/strong> <\/strong>a<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>austeridad<\/strong> <\/strong>partidista<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>crean<\/strong>, en su contra, el pretexto<\/strong> <\/strong>perfecto<\/strong> <\/strong>para<\/strong> <\/strong>reducir<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>presi\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>negociaci\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>futura<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>coalici\u00f3n<\/strong> <\/strong>legislativa<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>electoral<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Presidenta, por su parte, habr\u00e1<\/strong> <\/strong>calibrado<\/strong> <\/strong>si<\/strong> <\/strong>requiere<\/strong> o no la mayor\u00eda<\/strong> <\/strong>legislativa<\/strong> <\/strong>durante<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>resto<\/strong> <\/strong>del<\/strong> <\/strong>sexenio<\/strong>, probablemente<\/strong> <\/strong>las<\/strong> <\/strong>reformas<\/strong> que m\u00e1s le interesaban<\/strong> <\/strong>ya<\/strong> <\/strong>fueron<\/strong> <\/strong>aprobadas<\/strong>. Entonces<\/strong> \u00bf<\/strong>Tiene<\/strong> <\/strong>sentido<\/strong> <\/strong>seguir<\/strong> <\/strong>compartiendo<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>poder<\/strong>?  Considero que no, se acercan<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>procesos<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>definiciones<\/strong> <\/strong>electorales<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>entre<\/strong> <\/strong>menos<\/strong> <\/strong>concesiones<\/strong> <\/strong>tengan<\/strong> <\/strong>que<\/strong> <\/strong>brindarles<\/strong> <\/strong>a<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>aliados<\/strong>, menores<\/strong> <\/strong>ser\u00e1n<\/strong> <\/strong>los<\/strong> <\/strong>costos<\/strong> <\/strong>pol\u00edticos<\/strong> <\/strong>para<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>partido<\/strong> <\/strong>gobernante<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Si la reforma no se aprueba, los partidos<\/strong> <\/strong>pol\u00edticos<\/strong> <\/strong>aliados<\/strong> <\/strong>habr\u00e1n<\/strong> <\/strong>logrado<\/strong> <\/strong>una<\/strong> <\/strong>victoria<\/strong> <\/strong>inmediata<\/strong> <\/strong>que<\/strong> <\/strong>hoy<\/strong> <\/strong>les<\/strong> <\/strong>beneficia<\/strong>, aunque<\/strong> <\/strong>al<\/strong> <\/strong>mismo<\/strong> <\/strong>tiempo<\/strong> <\/strong>se<\/strong> <\/strong>ver\u00e1n<\/strong> <\/strong>inmersos<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>la<\/strong> <\/strong>p\u00e9rdida<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>influencia<\/strong> <\/strong>en<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>mediano<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>largo<\/strong> <\/strong>plazo<\/strong>. \u00bfEstamos ante el fin<\/strong> <\/strong>de<\/strong> <\/strong>unas<\/strong> <\/strong>alianzas<\/strong> <\/strong>y<\/strong> <\/strong>el<\/strong> <\/strong>surgimiento<\/strong> de otras? Est\u00e1<\/strong> <\/strong>por<\/strong> <\/strong>verse<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eduardo Ortiz Campa, Director de Pragm\u00e1tika. La reforma electoral que present\u00f3 la Presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum contiene impl\u00edcita una paradoja pol\u00edtica interesante: si la iniciativa no logra aprobarse, este resultado podr\u00eda favorecer la posici\u00f3n de la Presidenta dentro de la coalici\u00f3n gobernante. La iniciativa presidencial enfrenta tres escenarios posibles: que sea  bloqueada y no se apruebe,  que se apruebe con modificaciones o que se apruebe sin cambios. \u00bfDe qu\u00e9 trata la reforma? \u00bfSe aprobar\u00e1 o rechazar\u00e1? y \u00bfqui\u00e9n pierde y gana con ello? A continuaci\u00f3n, exponemos algunas hip\u00f3tesis. En t\u00e9rminos generales la reforma se articula en tres cambios: el primero, reducir en una cuarta parte el financiamiento de los partidos y con ellos quitarles poder econ\u00f3mico y operativo. El segundo, cambiar el modo en el que se eligen las diputaciones plurinominales en la C\u00e1mara de Diputados y eliminar las senadur\u00edas plurinominales, es decir, quitarles poder pol\u00edtico. Y el tercero, mayor fiscalizaci\u00f3n de las operaciones financieras de las personas candidatas y de los partidos, es decir, mayor supervisi\u00f3n sobre origen y destino de los recursos. En la pr\u00e1ctica, la reforma tendr\u00eda el impacto de quitarles poder a los partidos aliados y debilitarlos. En t\u00e9rminos pol\u00edticos eso implica disminuir su poder de negociaci\u00f3n dentro de la coalici\u00f3n gobernante de cara a lo que resta del sexenio, particularmente de los procesos electorales de 2027.  La iniciativa tambi\u00e9n propone ampliar los mecanismos de participaci\u00f3n ciudadana, permitir el voto electr\u00f3nico en las consultas populares y establecer la votaci\u00f3n directa para las diputaciones plurinominales.  Y entonces \u00bfSe va a aprobar o rechazar la reforma? Para responder, hay que tener presente lo siguiente. Actualmente Morena cuenta con 253 votos en la C\u00e1mara de Diputados, sin embargo, aprobar una reforma constitucional requiere una mayor\u00eda calificada de 334 votos. Uno de sus aliados el PT  (49 votos) se ha opuesto p\u00fablicamente a la reforma y el PVEM (62 votos) ha dejado abierta la posibilidad de apoyar la propuesta y se ha distanciado de las opiniones individuales de algunos de sus correligionarios. Incluso con el apoyo del PVEM pero sin los votos del PT o de otras fuerzas pol\u00edticas, la reforma no pasar\u00eda. El escenario m\u00e1s probable de la reforma electoral es que no sea aprobada. \u00bfQui\u00e9n gana y qui\u00e9n pierde si la reforma es bloqueada? Una lectura lineal, propondr\u00eda como ganadores a los partidos que se oponen a la reforma, no obstante, creemos que mantener la Constituci\u00f3n sin cambios en materia electoral beneficia m\u00e1s a la Presidenta que a sus aliados, a continuaci\u00f3n las razones. Para el PVEM y el PT votar en contra de la reforma implica dos cosas: 1) mantener el statu quo y 2) auto desvincularse de una parte de la agenda presidencial, una especie de autoexilio que podr\u00eda durar al menos hasta 2027 o incluso hasta 2030.  Al alejarse de la agenda presidencial los aliados insistir\u00e1n en que no rompen con la Presidenta, sin embargo, se autoetiquetan como opositores a la austeridad partidista y crean, en su contra, el pretexto perfecto para reducir la presi\u00f3n de negociaci\u00f3n futura en la coalici\u00f3n legislativa y electoral. La Presidenta, por su parte, habr\u00e1 calibrado si requiere o no la mayor\u00eda legislativa durante el resto del sexenio, probablemente las reformas que m\u00e1s le interesaban ya fueron aprobadas. Entonces \u00bfTiene sentido seguir compartiendo el poder?  Considero que no, se acercan los procesos de definiciones electorales y entre menos concesiones tengan que brindarles a los aliados, menores ser\u00e1n los costos pol\u00edticos para el partido gobernante. Si la reforma no se aprueba, los partidos pol\u00edticos aliados habr\u00e1n logrado una victoria inmediata que hoy les beneficia, aunque al mismo tiempo se ver\u00e1n inmersos en la p\u00e9rdida de influencia en el mediano y largo plazo. \u00bfEstamos ante el fin de unas alianzas y el surgimiento de otras? Est\u00e1 por verse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":22687,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"two_page_speed":[],"_joinchat":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[3165,89,127],"class_list":["post-22685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-columnas","tag-columna-2","tag-hidalgo","tag-reforma-electoral"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22685","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=22685"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22685\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22686,"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22685\/revisions\/22686"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=22685"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=22685"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaacropolis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=22685"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}